After It does not meet the necessary circumstances

After the
referendum, the Iraqi Kurds are not in a position to proclaim their
independence. It does not meet the necessary circumstances of economic and
military self-sufficiency, as well as the international recognition of a
relevant number of nations. Not to mention the classic Kurdish internal
division. It would not be a state with its territory completely defined and it
would absorb other ethnic populations that do not want to be separated from
Iraq. The economic situation of Iraqi Kurdistan has been in crisis since 2014
when oil prices began to fall. Which was supposed to be the key to the
independence of Iraqi Kurdistan, guaranteeing economic self-sufficiency. This has
now become a closed door that prevents the birth of the new State. Furthermore,
a divided Iraq is of no interest to anyone now, since it would put Iraq on the
verge of a failed state, with a possible armed conflict where ISIS would take
advantage of and recover ground.

So, why has Barzani
been determined to reach the limit with the referendum? Mainly to seek more
political legitimacy and a stronger position to force the central Government of
Iraq to sit down to negotiate by the time offor a future independence. But,
again, it is not the right moment.

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However, from a
point of view that considers the regional context, framed in the power struggle
between Saudi Arabia and its allies against Iran, Kurdish independence has a clear
geostrategic interest. The Iranian elites do not want an independent Iraqi
Kurdistan because they see it as a future American and Israeli base attached to
its border.

 

It
is difficult to think of a quick solution to the situation that Kurdish
citizens live in these countries, in addition to the growing number of refugees
in Asia and Europe, victims of a situation that does not stop escalating. It
remains to observe the evolution, as well as the interventions of the United
Nations and other International Organizations regarding the situation of the
Kurds.